Wheel(er)ing and dealing?
June 22, 2010
I came home from work today hoping to write something about speculative trades, and include the possibility of trading for Florida's Nathan Horton as well as others. Chiarelli beat me to the punch on Horton, but there is still a lot of time for dealing left before Friday's draft.
Earlier today, the Bruins sent Dennis Wideman, their first round pick (15th overall), and a third rounder from next season to Florida in exchange for the third overall pick from the 2003 Draft, as well as a second forward, Gregory Campbell.
Horton is a proven goalscorer, and offers something the Bruins haven't had since trading Phil Kessel: a decent goal-scorer. Horton has never not scored thirty goals, and he has also never played alongside a center the caliber of Marc Savard either, so the results should be exciting.
I like this trade a lot, mostly for picking up Horton who I very much like, but also for getting rid of Wideman, who is a defensive liability and one who is seemingly on the tail end of his career, as seen by his steep decline in offensive output. This frees up the Bruins to re-sign Johnny Boychuk, who has become something of a B&GS favorite and a very promising defenseman in his own right. Giving up the 15th overall pick takes away some draft flexibility, but I am fully expecting the wheeling and dealing to just be starting for Chiarelli.

Hopefully this ends up being a recurring theme during his Bruins tenure
The Bruins can address many issues before and during the draft on Friday, and avoid a weak free agent class completely.
There is a dearth of veteran goal-scorers on this team, and Horton himself can not fill that void. The B's need another savvy veteran who can finish when it counts to make the leap. The beauty of the Wideman for Horton deal is that Wideman would be overpaid at 4 million for this upcoming season, but Horton is at worst worth his contract, and is probably underpaid for the production he gives you, all while making the same as Wideman (and with one extra year on the contract left). The Bruins continue to have the freedom to bring another veteran forward aboard, and not have to hurt their core in order to do so.
Who are those forwards available? For a couple of months, amongst friends, I have thrown around why Ryan Malone would be perfect for these Bruins, and how a trade could work. Malone is making some serious cake next season, with a cap hit of six million dollars, but he is exactly what the Bruins need. A scrappy American forward with a knack for finishing, he would be a fan favorite in town. On the ice he would be that second needed goal-scorer added to this team. And on top of that I'd bet Tampa would be desperate to trade him for whatever they can get.
How desperate? I'd be willing to bet that the following deal would make Tampa salivate:
Tim Thomas and Blake Wheeler for Ryan Malone and Tampa's 2011 1st round pick.
Thomas and Malone both make the same amount of money. Malone is signed for one extra year (and makes only $5.5 million combined in those last two seasons ending in 2014). Thomas fills the massive need the Lightning have for a starting goalie, and Thomas would be ecstatic at a chance to go to a team as a #1 goalie. Wheeler would help replace the loss of Malone for them as well.
Mostly, Tampa gets a chance to pick up a goalie who can start for them for the next two-three seasons in Thomas, and draft a young netminder like Jack Campbell (leader of Team USA's World Junior Champions). Tampa can keep him in the juniors (on Taylor Hall's old team, the Windsor Spitfires) for seasoning, while Thomas helps them compete and keeps the seat warm for Campbell who could be a very special goalie down the road.
For Boston, the deal makes a lot of sense too. Any time you can trade a backup for a starter, you have to entertain the thought seriously. Thomas is set to only have a bit role for the Bruins in the upcoming season, with Rask as the undisputed number one. To get a forward like Malone for that cost is excellent value. I feel the trade is a little weighted to Tampa's favor however, because this is a buyer's market and Tampa is desperate to sell. The next year's first would just be sweetener to get the deal done, and give the Bruins three first rounders next year with which to either wheel and deal or pick for the future, two of which could be top ten picks with Tampa and Toronto not looking to get much better. Wheeler is going to be a good forward in this league but he doesn't play to his size which leaves people expecting more from him. Trading him to make room for Malone is an acceptable trade, especially with the pick coming next season.

See you later Timmy, but you know the saying: Vezina today, gone tomorrow.
More trades could be made on top of that. The Bruins would love to move up to #1 and guarantee themselves Taylor Hall, but it probably is not likely that they can make that switch. If the Bruins can't get Hall and get Seguin instead, it opens up more possibilities because Seguin is a center, a position the Bruins are currently stocked at. Drafting Seguin opens up the door for a potential trade of Marc Savard.
Savard will earn seven million dollars over each of the next two seasons. That is money that the Bruins, should they draft Seguin, would love to be able to use elsewhere. Patrice Bergeron has a pretty hefty contract as well, but his two-way play and faceoff expertise are areas that the Bruins will miss a lot were they to move him, whereas Seguin will be able to do a lot of what Savard does and in the near future possibly do them vastly better than him as well. The question is, what can the Bruins get for Savard, and who would entertain a trade?
Tampa is out of the question for Savard, they already have themselves in a high-priced veteran center quagmire with Vinny Lecavalier. Columbus, with the #4 overall pick, is a rumored destination for Savard. I doubt an underachieving team made up of a core of players that needs to be a lot younger would make that move though, so lets pass on Columbus. A team on the precipice with cap room to spare, like a Minnesota or New York Rangers, could definitely be in play for him.
Minnesota makes sense because they have several young, skilled wingers, but no one really solid to get them the puck other than Pierre-Marc Bouchard. Minnesota's ninth overall pick plus a defenseman like Cam Barker would net them Savard, and the B's will have set their defense up for the future in being able to have a good, young blueliner like Barker as well as the ability to pick from a deep defense class this year. The Rangers could make the deal for their tenth overall pick plus Marc Staal, which would allow them to give Marian Gaborik the centerman he needs. With that 9th or 10th pick the Bruins would look at forwards like Nino Niederreiter, Mikael Granlund, or Brett Connolly if they fell to them, or look defense with someone like Dylan McIlrath.
The Bruins also have a good amount of talent in their farm system ready to compete for spots on the team next season. Should any forwards get hurt early on, Maxime Suave, Joe Colborne, or Brad Marchant would likely get the call (Marchant might make the opening day roster based on his solid play during limited duty with Boston during the season). Ryder could also be on the move but will probably not net anything significant on his own.
I'll unleash three hypothetical rosters for 2010-2011 based on different scenarios. One is drafting Taylor Hall and making a Thomas move, one is drafting Tyler Seguin and making a Thomas and a Savard move, and one is drafting Hall and making no move. These scenarios assume re-signing our own FA's before looking at others.
Hall with Thomas move
Top Line: Savard (center), Hall, Horton
2nd Line: Bergeron (center), Malone, Sturm
3rd Line: Krejci (center), Recchi, Lucic
4th Line: Sobotka (center), Thornton, Begin
Top D: Chara, Seidenberg
2nd D: Stuart, Boychuck
3rd D: Ference, Hunwick
G: Rask, FA backup G
Adding: Taylor Hall, Ryan Malone, FA backup G
Losing: Thomas, Wheeler, Satan, Paille, Ryder
Seguin with Thomas and Savard moves (Minnesota for Savard)
Top Line: Bergeron (center), Horton, Malone
2nd Line: Seguin (center), Recchi, Lucic
3rd Line: Krejci (center), Sturm, Connolly
4th Line: Sobotka (center), Thornton, Begin
Top D: Chara, Seidenberg
2nd D: Stuart, Boychuck
3rd D: Ference, Barker
G: Rask, FA backup G
Adding: Tyler Seguin, Brett Connolly, Ryan Malone, Cam Barker, FA backup G
Losing: Thomas, Wheeler, Savard, Satan, Paille, Ryder, Hunwick
Hall with no move
Top Line: Savard (center), Hall, Horton
2nd Line: Bergeron (center), Recchi, Sturm
3rd Line: Krejci (center), Wheeler, Lucic
4th Line: Sobotka (center), Thornton, Begin
Top D: Chara, Seidenberg
2nd D: Stuart, Boychuck
3rd D: Ference, Hunwick
G: Rask, Thomas
Adding: Taylor Hall
Losing: Satan, Paille, Ryder

In Cam We Trust
Hall with no move makes us better, but not by much. Hall will add a lot of scoring punch but at the same time not being able to get value for Thomas will be bad. Hall with a Thomas move brings us a veteran goal-scorer, as well as a future pick, and makes the Bruins significantly better for next season. I think Seguin with a Thomas and Savard move makes us slightly worse next season, but significantly better down the road. The question is is how much do the Bruins want to shake up what they had last year, if they have to draft Seguin and retool a bit instead of being able to draft Hall who would seamlessly transition in.
No matter what happens, the Bruins will be a better team next season with Seguin or Hall. What Chiarelli has a chance to do this Friday though is position his team to be a dynasty in the making, with top players at several different spots all locked up long term and with the cap flexibility to make moves if need be.
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