In the NBA, playoffs, a team has had a 3-1 lead in a series 199 times. And the team with that lead has gone on to win the series 191 of those times. 

But here are some reasons to believe the Celtics have a better than 4% chance of winning the series against Miami:

1. Ray is due for a big game. When Ray Allen scores 20, the Celtics almost always win. He did it 3 times in the first 5 playoff games. And zero in the last 3. A big game or two from Ray will go a long way in turning this series around.

2. The Celtics need offense. But Big Baby Davis is shooting a woeful 39% in the playoffs, He says he can't find himself. At 6/9" 289, I find that very hard to believe, but that's just me. However, with the season on the line now, if he struggles in Game 5, I know where he may find himself. On the bench.

Hopefully, that would give Nenad Krstic some playing time. He's a double figure scorer for his career and an efficient scorer at that, shooting close to 50% from the field. If he can knock down some shots, it'll space the floor for the other four. Plus, by having another 7 footer on the floor who can score, Miami may put Joel Anthony on Nenad, which would leave Kevin Garnett to feast on Bosh. Krstic has been rebounding better in Boston than he was in Oklahoma City too. But for Krstic  to hit his shots, he needs playing time. He's been a starter his whole career, so the 6 minutes a game he's been playing off the bench in this year's playoffs doesn't allow him to get loose, let alone hot. 

3. As the saying goes, winning the series clinching game is the toughest one to get. And the Heat know that if they don't win Game 5, it'll be tough to take Game 6 back in Boston. And if the Celtics win Game 6 in Boston, they'll have 2 days of rest before Game 7 which is big for the older Celtics players. So the pressure is on Miami to get it done in Game 5.

4. With the Celtics in desperation mode and his top 2 point guards injured, Coach "Doc" Rivers may do something crazy like give some playing time to Carlos Arroyo. He was Miami's starting point guard, so he's a veteran with playoff experience. He knows the Heat's plays and players, as well as the Celtics'. He's comfortable playing in American Airlines Arena in Miami. And he'll have extra incentive going against his former team. And he's way healthier and fresher than Delonte West and Rajon Rondo. It may be worth giving him a shot in Game 5.

5. Jeff Green is looking more comfortable with the Celtics every day. He could have a breakout game any time now. 

6. KG rarely has two bad games in a row. And after shooting 1-10 in Game 4, he's got nowhere to go but up.

7. They're sure to have a sellout in Miami tomorrow night for Game 5. And that could make Chris Bosh nervous. And you know how he plays when he's nervous...

Thoughts? Comments? Questions? I'd love to hear from you. E-mail me at RamblingDude@gmail.com.